Venezuela attack raises WW3 risk

The transition from peace to a state of war in the year 2026 results from the failure of deterrence and the convergence of systemic crises.

Early on January 3, 2026, United States forces executed a high-stakes strike on Caracas, successfully capturing the Venezuelan president in an operation now known as Operation Southern Spear. While Washington frames this intervention as a necessary response to rampant drug trafficking and regional instability, the reality is far more transactional: this is an aggressive bid to secure the world’s largest oil reserves and reshape global energy flows.

This strike extends a violent reorganization of the global order. By seizing control of Venezuelan energy, the US administration intends to grant Western oil companies direct access to reserves, effectively insulating the West from volatile Eastern markets. It is a bold, perhaps desperate, move to secure resource sovereignty in an era defined by a worldwide poly-crisis.

The fallout was immediate. For Russia and China, Venezuela is a strategic foothold in the Western Hemisphere. China, which relies on Venezuelan crude for a significant portion of its imports, now faces what Beijing termed a sovereign default by force.

Removing the leadership in Caracas threatens years of investment and billions in outstanding loans. Russia and China now face a stark choice: accept the loss of influence or respond in theaters where the US is overextended. We are entering a phase of asymmetric debt recovery, where Moscow and Beijing will seek compensation through territorial and economic aggression elsewhere.

The strike has shattered the illusion of strategic ambiguity. In a world of interconnected dependencies, the Caracas catalyst could force a rigid "bloc-logic" back onto the map. Moscow and Beijing, once wary partners, now stand side by side. For every dollar of Venezuelan asset frozen by Washington, Beijing and Moscow could synchronize their military posture, effectively forcing every middle power, from Brazil to Turkey, to choose a side.

As the US commits its carrier groups to the Caribbean and its logistics to a South American occupation, the global "deterrence shield" thins. This provides a window of opportunity for regional powers to settle old scores under the cover of a great power distraction.

In South Asia, the most dangerous of these opportunistic flashpoints has simmered for years. New Delhi, sensing Beijing’s preoccupation and the potential for a Pacific front, might strike while the iron is hot. The objective is the pre-emptive securing of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) headwaters.

In a world where oil is being seized by the West, India views water as its existential red line. If China is perceived as weakened or distracted by the American gambit in Caracas, India may move to seize control of the Tibetan hydrological infrastructure. This "Water War" could extend into multi-front continental conflict, and is just one of many examples of potential knock-on effects of a conflict between China, Russia and US.

As the US pivots its focus toward Venezuela, the architecture of deterrence in Europe is beginning to crumble. The reduction of support for Ukraine’s defense has already created a power vacuum that Russia is eager to fill. Moscow is now looking toward the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor connecting the Baltic states to their NATO allies.

If Russia moves on the Gap while the US is bogged down in a Venezuelan counter-insurgency, Washington may be forced to choose between its own hemisphere and its European allies. This realization is pushing Poland and the Baltic states toward independent, perhaps desperate, defense sub-alliances as they realize that US hegemony has finally found its limit.

In the Pacific, the Venezuelan strike has set a dangerous precedent. Beijing’s logic is simple: if the US can seize oil to secure its future, China can seize semiconductors. From the perspective of the competing powers, Taiwan remains the ultimate prize, holding the keys to the next century’s industrial intelligence.

The regional response could involve Japan. Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Tokyo has officially invoked its "Red Line" protocols. Any Chinese move to fill the vacuum left by the US Seventh Fleet in the Philippine Sea is now classified as a Survival-Threatening Situation (STS). This legally triggers Japan’s right to collective self-defense, marking the end of its post-war pacifism. As Japan rearms beyond the limits of its constitution, the Pacific has become a powderkeg where neutrality is no longer an option.

Western economic hegemony is also under attack. On January 1, 2026, China launched Digital RMB 2.0, a smart-contract-based currency designed to bypass the SWIFT system entirely. Combined with the mBridge project, this allows for international trade settlement without any reliance on US infrastructure.

This technological shift is a weapon. In response to the Caracas strike, China could freeze Western assets within the mBridge ledger, treating the US intervention as a seizure of Chinese property. When the systems of finance fail to clear, the economic war ends and the shooting war begins. The petrodollar system, which allowed the US to fund its national debt and military for decades, is effectively on life support.

Would the world’s manufacturing floor ever go to war with its best customer?

We have been here before. In 1914, leaders believed that the high volume of trade between the UK and Germany would prevent a total war. They were wrong. When states fear their supply chains will be cut, they strike to secure the source.

The January 3rd strike in Venezuela proves that financial wealth is secondary to survival. The US holds the oil, China seeks the chips, and Russia wants the land. We live in a system in disequilibrium where resource scarcity (including energy, water, food) dictates policy, and could rapidly push the world towards global chaos.

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Thanks, Sarah